This August you’ll be able to vote in statewide primary elections to decide the party candidates for your area, as well as a few ballot issues. Now, my dad often skipped these elections, he wanted to let the party diehards work out for themselves who they thought best represented their issues. A more independent voter, he made his selection from who they chose. My grandfather however was deeply dedicated to his party and would show up every time he had an option to vote. If you sometimes skip primary elections, I get it. The data shows many people agree with you and my dad. Our last mid-presidential term election was in 2022, and August turnout was just 23.9%, compared to November when 49.6% of registered voters cast ballots. Of all statewide ballots, these midterm primaries have historically the lowest turnout of all ballots. November 2024, our last Presidential election ballot, showed 67.6% voter turnout.
However, in Missouri our Governor has a lot of discretion on when to put statewide ballot issues on an upcoming ballot. Any issue that is passed during the legislative session or certified in time can be placed on either the November or August ballots. It follows then that issues he or she believes are likely to have broad support from more voters will be placed in November, while controversial issues that might not receive as much public support will go on the August ballot. It is also the case that sometimes issues that the governor worries may harm their parties’ candidates might go on the August ballot, so the November ballot can be about the party or candidate, and not that specific issue.
This August all voters will see Amendments 1, 2, 4, and 5 on their ballots. Amendment 2 would require that all charter counties, including Jackson County, elect a county assessor and that such assessors comply with training requirements established by state law.* I’ve got some thoughts about Amendment 1, and that weekly perspective is coming soon. But Amendments 4 and 5 are closely connected to Empower Missouri’s work over the last several years, and I’m going to talk about them now.
Amendment 4
Amendment 4 will drastically change the ability of the people to change the state constitution. Changes to Missouri’s constitution must be approved by the voters, and can appear on the ballot in one of two ways. The first, and the process this amendment experienced, was by the legislature. 78% of the constitutional amendments we’ve voted on in the last 115 years followed this path. A Joint Resolution is introduced, receives hearings in the House and Senate, is voted on by both bodies, and signed by the Governor. The second is through the initiative petition. This is a rigorous signature gathering process that begins with community members. Language is drafted and submitted, then approved by the Secretary of State. Community members then collect signatures in at least 6 out of the 8 congressional districts, totalling at least 8% of the most recent statewide election turnout. This is tens of thousands of signatures which are then verified by the Secretary of State’s office. The process is intentionally difficult, but once placed on the ballot these issues face the same challenge: pass with 50% + 1 of the votes.
Amendment 4 leaves that process completely the same for all constitutional changes initiated by the legislature. However, it changes the voting threshold for all changes proposed via the initiative petition process. Those changes would need to be approved by a majority in each congressional district, not just the statewide vote. Those changes could in theory pass overwhelmingly in 7 districts, but fail by only 1 vote in 1 district, which would then prevent its passage statewide. In fact these more stringent requirements would have doomed some of Missouri’s most impactful initiative petition changes recently; Medicaid Expansion, Right to Work, Marijuana Legalization, and Sports Betting. A vote in St Louis county shouldn’t mean more than a vote in Pemiscot county, but under this policy it could. Proponents who support a change through the initiative petition process would need to run a statewide campaign, while opponents would only need to campaign in one district. The legislature and advocates agree, it would make voter approval of citizen united constitution changes nearly impossible to succeed.
Amendment 5
Amendment 5 will radically change the tax code in Missouri with implications we can’t even yet foresee. Overall, it will order the legislature to increase sales tax while decreasing income tax until the income tax is fully eliminated. How significant is that? In 2025, 65.4% of the state general revenue fund came from income taxes, approximately $9 billion. While we don’t all balance household budgets as large as the state budget, we do all know when income decreases in one area, it must increase in others. Estimates about how much sales tax increase we might face are varied, and the language does not provide sufficient guard rails around those increases to really be able to say. It allows the legislature to increase sales tax each year for the next 5 years, with no transparency or vote of the people. It also allows them to tax more services which may not currently be taxed, like car repairs and doctor visits. It’s important to note that Missouri term limits and election cycles mean we really do not know who will be in the Missouri state legislature 5 years from now, and this change forces us to trust these unknown strangers with our tax code. We also will not have easy recourse to reverse course, especially if Amendment 4 were to also pass. We would have to elect a legislature which all agrees enough to pass a bill limiting their own power to decide the tax rate, they’d have to decide what that rate should be, they’d have to put it up to a vote of the citizens, and that vote would have to pass.
Missouri faced a budget shortfall of nearly $2 billion for 2027; certainly sales tax increases will also be used to cover this existing deficit. Generating $11 billion in revenue divided by Missouri’s 6.2 million residents would equal out to over $1,700 per person. Of course that is apples to oranges, and the advocates who actually know the state’s budget expect the average Missouri household to face an increase of $535 per year. That’s an average for a household who will experience less income tax burden and more sales tax, but does not account for the lowest income households who currently pay very little or no income tax, such as the elderly or disabled. They won’t see any annual income tax savings, but will feel the impact of increased sales tax.
I know none of you will be surprised to hear that sometimes I hop into social media comment threads to do some educating, and the argument I hear is that sales tax equalizes the tax burden for those who spend in our state. We all pay sales tax while higher earners pay more income tax. Income tax is one example of a progressive tax structure, meaning those who can afford more pay more. Sales tax is regressive, meaning those with lower incomes pay a higher percentage of their income to sales tax than those who have more income. Wealthier people are more likely able to save, untaxed. They have more disposable income and they often use it to travel, spending sales tax dollars outside of our state. They might eat out more often or buy higher quality groceries, but they still can only spend so much in a day. Some of the money they earn in Missouri will certainly be spent in Missouri. However we can’t say most of it will, and we absolutely cannot say all of it will. On the other hand, low income families spend all or most of their income right here nearby. They pay a higher percentage of their income on housing, transportation, groceries, and goods, right here in Missouri. They have less disposable income, most of what they earn is spent. A high earning household and a low earning household may both buy the same TV for the same price, but the impact to their budget, both of the item and of the sales tax, will be very different.
Make sure you educate yourself on these important ballot issues and show up to vote Aug 4th. Check and update your voter registration ASAP at the Secretary of State website.
*This article previously incorrectly stated that Amendment 2 would only appear on ballots in Jackson county. While the amendment mentions Jackson County, it will appear on all ballots statewide.
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